Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations

FIRO is a proposed management strategy that uses data from watershed monitoring and modern weather and water forecasting to help water managers selectively retain or release water from reservoirs in a manner that reflects current and forecasted conditions.

FIRO is being developed and tested as a collaborative effort focused on Lake Mendocino that engages experts in civil engineering, hydrology, meteorology, biology, economics and climate from several federal, state and local agencies, universities and others.



 

Overview
News
Executive Summary
Preliminary Viability Assessment
Watershed Characteristics and Challenges
Interagency Cooperation

Jay Jasperse

(Sonoma County Water Agency)

F. Martin Ralph

(Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes at Scripps Institution of Oceanography)


Michael Anderson

(California State Climate Office, Department of Water Resources)

Levi Brekke

(Bureau of Reclamation)

Michael Dettinger

(United States Geologic Survey)

Mike Dillabough

(US Army Corps of Engineers)

Alan Haynes

(Caifornia Nevada River Forecast Center, NWS)

Joseph Forbis

(US Army Corps of Engineers)

Patrick Rutten

(NOAA NMFS Restoration Center)

Cary Talbot

(US Army Corps of Engineers)

Robert Webb

(NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory)


Arleen O’Donnell

(Eastern Research Group)

Ann Dubay

(Sonoma County Water Agency)

David Ford

(David Ford Consulting)

Rob Hartman

(RKH Consulting Services)

FIRO News

Odds of Reaching 100% Water Year Precipitation - May Update (05/02/18)
Distribution of Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers on the U.S. West Coast During Water Year 2018 (05/01/18)
Odds of Reaching 100% Water Year Precipitation - April Update (04/10/18)
CW3E AR Update: 04 April 2018 Outlook (04/04/18)
CW3E AR Update: 03 April 2018 Outlook (04/03/18)
CW3E AR Update: 02 April 2018 Outlook (04/02/18)
International Atmospheric Rivers Conference 2018 – Abstract Submission and Registration Open Now! (03/27/18)
CW3E AR Update: 23 March 2018 Post Event Summary (03/23/18)
CW3E AR Update: 22 March 2018 Outlook (03/22/18)
CW3E AR Update: 21 March 2018 Outlook (03/21/18)
CW3E AR Update: 20 March 2018 Outlook (03/20/18)
CW3E AR Update: 19 March 2018 Outlook (03/19/18)
CW3E AR Update: 16 March 2018 Outlook (03/16/18)
CW3E AR Update: 15 March 2018 Outlook (03/15/18)
CW3E AR Update: 7 March 2018 Outlook (03/07/18)
CW3E Publication Notice: High-Elevation Evapotranspiration Estimates During Drought: Using Streamflow and NASA Airborne Snow Observatory SWE Observations to Close the Upper Tuolumne River Basin Water Balance (03/05/18)
CW3E Launches Near Real-Time AR and QPF Forecast Verification Website (02/13/18)
CW3E Publication Notice: Genesis, Pathways, and Terminations of Intense Global Water Vapor Transport in Association with Large-Scale Climate Patterns (02/13/18)
Atmospheric River Reconnaissance - 2018 Underway (02/08/18)
CW3E Publication Notice: An Inter-comparison Between Reanalysis and Dropsonde Observations of the Total Water Vapor Transport in Individual Atmospheric Rivers (02/02/18)
CW3E Represented at the National Council for Science and the Environment National Conference and Global Forum (01/29/18)
CW3E Launches Interactive AR Rain Versus Snow Forecast Maps and Watershed Plots (01/26/18)
CW3E AR Update: 8-10 January 2018 Post Event Summary (01/11/18)
CW3E Fieldwork Season Begins (01/10/18)
Odds of Reaching 100% of Normal Precipitation for Water Year 2018 (January Update) (01/08/18)
CW3E AR Update: 8 January 2018 Outlook (01/08/18)
CW3E AR Update: 3 January 2018 Outlook (01/03/18)

CW3E Director Featured in Weather Channel Article on ARs (12/22/17)
Hunting Atmospheric Rivers; UC San Diego Scientists Preparing to Capture Data From Critical Source of California's Water Supply (12/15/17)
Odds of Reaching 100% of Normal Precipitation for Water Year 2018 (December Update) (12/08/17)
CW3E Publication Notice: GPM Satellite Radar Measurements of Precipitation and Freezing Level in Atmospheric Rivers: Comparison with Ground-Based Radars and Reanalyses (12/06/17)
CW3E Publication Notice: Flood runoff in relation to water vapor transport by atmospheric rivers over the western United States (12/01/17)
CW3E AR Update: 20 November 2017 Outlook and Summary (11/20/17)
CW3E AR Update: 17 November 2017 Outlook and Summary (11/17/17)
Lake Mendocino Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations Steering Committee Submit Major Deviation Request (11/15/17)
CW3E AR Update: 14 November 2017 Outlook (11/14/17)
CW3E AR Update: 8 November 2017 Outlook (11/08/17)
Atmospheric Rivers Highlighted in the U.S. Fourth National Climate Assessment (11/06/17)
CW3E AR Update: 3 November 2017 Outlook (11/03/17)
FIRO Steering Committee Co-Chairs Provide In-depth Briefing to USACE (11/02/17)
CW3E AR Update: 31 October 2017 Outlook (10/31/17)
CW3E AR Update: 18-23 October 2017 Summary (10/26/17)
CW3E AR Update: 18 October 2017 Outlook (10/18/17)
Sonoma County Water Agency Board of Directors Chairwoman, Zane, testifies on FIRO before Senate Committee (08/02/17)
American Geophysical Union Publishes Collection of Atmospheric River Publications in Geophysical Research Letters (07/27/17)
CW3E Begins Installation of Instrumentation in the Russian River Watershed (07/07/17)
CW3E Participates in Western States Water Council Visit to UC Davis' Bodega Marine Lab (07/01/17)
CW3E AR Update: 06 June 2017 Outlook (06/06/17)
CW3E AR Update: 05 June 2017 Outlook (06/05/17)
CW3E Update: Flood Risk From Snow Melt (05/23/17)
Atmospheric Rivers: Recent Developments and Applications in California (05/19/17)
Key California Precipitation Index Hits Record Yearly Level After Only 7 Months (04/13/17)
CW3E Publication Notice: High-Impact Hydrologic Events and Atmospheric Rivers in California: An Investigation using the NCEI Storm Events Database (04/12/17)
CW3E AR Update: 11 April 2017 Outlook (04/11/17)
How Many Atmospheric Rivers Have Hit the U.S. West Coast During the Remarkably Wet Water Year 2017? (04/06/17)
Odds of Reaching 100% Water Year Precipitation - April Update (04/06/17)
CW3E AR Update: 04 April 2017 Outlook (04/04/17)
CW3E AR Update: 16 March 2017 Outlook (03/16/17)
Odds of Reaching 100% Water Year Precipitation - Mar Update (03/08/17)
Current Winter Setting a New California-Wide Record Precipitation Accumulation (03/07/17)
CW3E AR Update: 28 February 2017 Post Event Summary and Outlook (02/28/17)
CW3E AR Update: 22 February 2017 Post Event Summary (02/22/17)
CW3E AR Update: 17 February 2017 Outlook (02/17/17)
CW3E AR Update: 16 February 2017 Outlook (02/16/17)
CW3E AR Update: 15 February 2017 Outlook (02/15/17)
CW3E AR Update: 13 February 2017 Outlook (02/13/17)
CW3E AR Update: 09 February 2017 Outlook (02/09/17)
Odds of Reaching 100% of Normal Precipitation for Water Year 2017 (February update) (02/09/17)
CW3E AR Update: 08 February 2017 Outlook (02/08/17)
CW3E AR Update: 07 February 2017 Outlook (02/07/17)
CW3E AR Update: 06 February 2017 Outlook (02/06/17)
CW3E AR Update: 01 February 2017 Outlook (02/01/17)

Water year 2017 Precipitation (01/24/17)
CW3E AR Update: 19 January 2017 Outlook (01/19/17)
CW3E AR Update: 17 January 2017 Outlook (01/17/17)
CW3E AR Update: 11 January 2017 Outlook (01/11/17)
CW3E in the News (01/10/17)
CW3E AR Update: 9 January 2017 Outlook and Summary (01/09/17)
Odds of Reaching 100% of Normal Precipitation for Water Year 2017 (January update) (01/09/17)
CW3E AR Update: 6 January 2017 Outlook (01/06/17)
CW3E AR Update: 5-10 January 2017 Outlook (01/05/17)
CW3E AR Update: 4-10 January 2017 Outlook (01/05/17)

CW3E AR Update: 23-25 December 2016 Outlook (12/22/16)
CW3E AR Update: 16 December 2016 Outlook (12/16/16)
CW3E AR Update: 15-17 December 2016 Outlook (12/15/16)
CW3E AR Update: 14-17 December 2016 Outlook (12/14/16)
CW3E AR Update: 13-17 December 2016 Outlook (12/13/16)
Odds of Reaching 100% of Normal Precipitation for Water Year 2017 (December update) (12/9/16)
CW3E AR Update: 9-13 December 2016 Outlook (12/9/16)
CW3E partners with CDWR, CGS, USGS, and WRCC to assess post-fire debris flow hazards in CA (12/2/16)
CW3E Water Year 2017 Precipitation (December Update) (12/1/16)
October 2016 Summary: Record Breaking Precipitation (11/23/16)
CW3E AR Update: Post-Event Summary: 4-9 November 2016 (11/14/16)
CW3E AR Update: 4-9 November, 2016 Outlook (11/04/16)
CW3E AR Update: Post-Event Summary: 14-17 October 2016 (10/20/16)
CW3E AR Update: 14 October 2016 Summary and Outlook (10/14/16)
CW3E AR Update: 13-15 October 2016 Outlook (10/12/16)
The First International Atmospheric Rivers Conference (08/08/16)
Congressional Briefing on “A New Frontier in Water Operations: Atmospheric Rivers, Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Predictions and Weather Forecasting Technology” (07/27/16)
Lake Mendocino Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) Workshop Summary (07/05/16)
CW3E AR Update – Post-Event Summary: 7-10 April 2016 (04/14/16)
Odds of reaching 100% of normal precipitation for water year 2016 in California (April update) (04/11/16)
CW3E AR Update – Outlook: 7-10 April 2016 (04/7/16)
Publication Notice: Predictability of horizontal water vapor transport relative to precipitation: Enhancing situational awareness for forecasting western U.S. extreme precipitation and flooding (3/17/16)
CW3E AR Update – Post-Event Summary: 5-6 March 2016 (03/11/16)
CW3E AR Update – Outlook: 10-11 March 2016 (03/10/16)
Odds of reaching 100% of normal precipitation for water year 2016 in California (March update). (03/10/16)
CW3E AR Update – Outlook: 5-7 March 2016 (03/04/16)
CW3E AR Update – Outlook: 3 March 2016 (03/03/16)
Odds of reaching 100% of normal precipitation for water year 2016 in California. (02/08/16)
A Preliminary Synopsis of the 5 January 2016 Atmospheric River (01/05/16)