CW3E AR Update: 20 March Outlook

March 20, 2018

Click here for a pdf of this information.

Update on Atmospheric River Forecast to Impact California This Week

• The terminus of the atmospheric river plume is approaching coastal CA and precipitation will begin today
• Models are suggesting potentially strong (IVT >750 kg m^-1 s^-1) AR conditions over San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties
• Locations further south may experience moderate strength AR conditions (IVT >500 kg m^-1 s^-1)
• AR conditions are forecast to peak over portions of SoCal between Midnight and 11 AM PDT on Thursday, 22 March 2018
• As much as 10 inches of precipitation may fall over the higher elevations of Santa Barbara and Ventura Counties
• The National Weather Service has issued numerous Flash Flood Watches and Winter Weather Warnings in California

Images from CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin

Click IVT or IWV image to see loop of 0-72 hour GFS forecast Valid 1200 UTC 20 March – 1200 UTC 23 March 2018

Summary provided by C. Hecht, F.M. Ralph, J. Rutz, and B. Kawzenuk; 1 PM PT Tuesday 20 March 2018

*Outlook products are considered experimental