CW3E AR Update: 16 February 2024 Outlook

February 16, 2024

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Pair of Storms to Bring Precipitation to California

• A pair of storms are forecast to impact the US West Coast during the next several days.
• The first storm is an atmospheric river (AR) that makes landfall across the USWC on Fri 16 Feb.
• The landfall orientation of the this AR is likely to be suboptimal for orographic precipitation, potentially limiting the precipitation potential of this system.
• The second storm is a second AR that is forecast to make landfall alongside a low pressure system into central CA on Sun 18 Feb.
• The second system taps into remnant moisture from the first system, which combined with the persistence of the stationary low pressure system off the CA coast, will result in a multi-day precipitation event for the state.
• The NWS Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is forecast significant precipitation over the next 7 days along the northern and central CA coasts and in the Sierra Nevada.
• The WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO) indicates a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4, or at least 15% chance) for flooding over the northern CA coast with the first storm and along the northern and central CA coasts with the second storm.
• The WPC ERO also indicates a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4, or at least 5% chance) for flooding across broader areas.
• The second storm is likely to bring heavy snowfall to the Sierra Nevada. The National Blend of Models (NBM) indicates very high probabilities (>90%) of snowfall accumulations exceeding 24”.

Click images to see loops of GFS IVT and IWV forecasts Valid 1200 UTC 16 February 2024 – 1200 UTC 21 February 2024

Summary provided by M. Steen, P. Iniguez, S. Bartlett and C. Castellano; 16 February 2024

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For any unfamiliar terms, please refer to the American Meteorological Society Glossary.