CW3E AR Update: 3 March 2016 Outlook
March 3, 2016
CW3E gives an outlook on current and upcoming Atmospheric River (AR) events along the U.S. West Coast. A moderate AR is currently impacting central California producing light precipitation over the northern Sierra Nevada and Central Valley. Two ARs are expected to make landfall over the Pacific Northwest in the next seven days, with both propagating south over California prior to dissipation. Long range forecasts also show the potential for another strong AR to make landfall in the Pacific Northwest next week.
For the latest river and precipitation forecasts and observations visit the California Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC) or the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). For the latest AR forecasts visit the CW3E AR Portal.
Click here for a pdf file of this information.
Northeast Pacific SSMI IWV: 1400 UTC 29 Feb 2016 – 1400 UTC 3 March 2016
GPS Integrated Water Vapor: 1515 UTC 3 March 2016
IWV values greater than 2 cm
throughout central California
-Current AR conditions
The North Sierra 8-Station and Tulare Basin 6-Station Precipitation Indices are average for this time of year.
AR Landfall Probability Tool: Initialized 0000 UTC 3 March 2016
Hover mouse over description below to see forecast product or click to open. Images courtesy Jason Cordeira; Plymouth State University
- Periods of AR conditions forecasted along most the U.S. West Coast on forecast days 0-1, 1-2, 2-5 and 4-5
- Strong probability of AR event on forecast days 7-8
- All forecasted ARs are expected to penetrate inland over Oregon and northern California
CNRFC River Forecasts
2000 UTC 3 March 2016
GFS Ensemble MJO Index Forecast; 3 March 2016 – 17 March 2016
- AR currently impacting northern and central California
- AR to make landfall at 1800 UTC 4 March 2016 over NW Pacific
- AR to make landfall at 0600 UTC 9 March 2016 over NW Pacific
- All three ARs propagate south over California prior to dissipation
CNFRC Precipitation Forecasts: Produced 3 March 2016
7-day Precipitation Forecasts: Ending 4:00 am PST 10 March 2016
- Current dissipating AR impacting central California
- Two moderate strength ARs expected to make landfall along the U.S. West Coast over the next five days
- Another AR may potentially make landfall late next week
- 7-day precipitation totals up to 300 mm in multiple locations over the U.S. West Coast
For more information about AR updates or forecast products visit the CW3E Home Page or contact Brian Kawzenuk, Marty Ralph, or Scott Sellars at CW3E.